Megatrend / Demographic Changes.
Despite declines in fertility rates around the world, there is expected a growth in the number of people. Since 1999, population grew with 0.5 billion every 6 years. The numbers are steady enough to tell us that by 2056 the global population will be 10 billion. In other words, the world’s population increases on average by 1/3 every 35 years, according to the Population Reference Bureau.
The largest urban explosion of young people will be in Africa. There will be living 90% of all the 0-14 age group from the top 750 cities together in 2030. By contrast, 122 of the same 750 cities have populations that are expected to shrink by 2030, mostly due to aging populations. Most of these cities are from Eastern Europe, Germany, Italy, South Korea and China.
The current population of China is 1.378 billion, representing the most populous country in the world. By 2050 it will be the second country behind India with a slightly lower population of 1.344 billion.
India will gain 379 billion people by 2050, reaching a total of 1.708 billion and taking the lead as the biggest nation in the world. The 9th and 10th place of today, Russia and Mexico, will be replaced until 2050 by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Egypt.
Niger will triple its population by 2050 due to the highest rate of fertility of women in the world. Another interesting fact is that the 10 highest fertility rates are all in sub-Saharan Africa: South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad, Somalia, Burundi, Angola, Mali, Mozambique and Uganda.
5. South Korea
South Korea has seven times lower fertility rate than Niger, making it the lowest in the world. The same goes for Romania, Singapore and Taiwan. The lowest fertility rates are in Europe – Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Moldova, Poland, Portugal and Spain – and Asia: Singapore and Taiwan.
6. The U.S.
The U.S. will increase its population by 23 percent by 2050 to 398 million, but will remain third in the world, sharing almost the same population as Nigeria.
Nigeria will increase its population by 113% by 2050, from 187 million today to 298 million. The population of the world’s least developed countries comprises 48 countries (34 of which are in Africa) and it will double to 1.9 billion by 2050.
Romania will have 6 million less people by 2050 due to the lowest fertility rate in the world, ending up with only 14 million people from 20 in 2017.
Asia will reach 900 million people over the next 33 years with a total of 5.3 billion by 2050. In comparison to the African continent (2.5 billion), it will be two-and-a-half times bigger. The Americas will have 1.2 billion people, and Oceania (including Australia and New Zealand) will reach 66 million. Europe will see a slight decline in its population from 740 million to 728 million.
1. Age gap
By 2050, there will be just two working age people per one elderly person in Europe, compared to the current proportion of 4/1. In nigeria there will be 15/1.
2. Ageing faster
The developing countries are experiencing a much higher pace of population ageing than ever before in the past. They will need to adapt much more faster to ageing population at much lower levels of national income compared to the countries that developed much earlier.
3. Living Longer
In 2010-2015, 60-year-old persons globally could expect to live an additional 20.2 years, on average. Across the six regions, life expectancy at age 60 was highest in Oceania and Northern America, at 23.7 years and 23.5 years, respectively, and lowest in Africa, at 16.7 years.
Among today’s young people, survival to age 80 is expected to be the norm everywhere but in Africa. Worldwide, 60 per cent of women and 52 per cent of men born in 2000-2005 are expected to survive to their eightieth birthdays, compared to less than 40 per cent of the women and men born in 1950-1955.
4. More Old People
Globally, the number of people aged 80 years or over, the “oldest-old” persons, is growing even faster than the number of older persons overall. In 2000, there were 71 million people aged 80 or over worldwide. Since then, the number of oldest-old grew by 77 per cent to 125 million in 2015, and it is projected to increase by 61 per cent over the next 15 years, reaching nearly 202 million in 2030. Projections indicate that in 2050 the oldest-old will number 434 million globally, having more than tripled in number since 2015.
5. Low-income countries stay younger
The population ageing process is much slower in low-income countries: in 89 per cent of low-income countries and 62 per cent of lower-middle-income countries, the share of older persons is projected to remain below 10 % through 2030.
Data source: United Nations (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (download full report here)